Archive for September 30, 2010

As they say, ‘Take It With A Grain Of Salt’, here are your CFN/Scout Big Ten Picks for Week 5, Oct. 2 2010.

Michigan (4-0) at Indiana (3-0) Oct. 2, 3:30, ESPNU

Here’s The Deal … Michigan might have been down over the last few years, and there have been a few ebbs and flows in the program over the decades, but one thing has been a constant: it doesn’t lose to Indiana. Since 1967, IU has won just once (1987) in the last 32 tries, but it came close last year in a 36-33 thriller. That win was the last one of 2009 against an FBS team, finishing 1-7 the rest of the way. This might be IU’s most interesting chance yet with a high-powered passing game, tight special teams, and just enough talent on both sides of the ball to ruin all the fun the Maize and Blue are having. Michigan might not be any good – it can’t play a lick of defense and the offense hasn’t seen a defense with a pulse – but it’s by far the most fun team in college football right now with the No. 2 ranked rushing attack, second-best total offense, and a defense just bad enough to force the offense to keep pressing. The win over UConn was fine, and beating Notre Dame in South Bend is solid, but for all the bells and whistles, Michigan still has a lot to prove after going 4-0 to start last year before going into the tank. IU isn’t a pushover this year, but with Michigan State, Iowa, and at Penn State to follow, this game is as easy as it’ll get for the Wolverines until November. IU gets to go to Ohio State next week, so all the excitement over a 3-0 start will go bye-bye in a hurry with a loss this week.
Why Michigan Might Win: Towson, Western Kentucky, and Akron. The three teams Indiana has faced so far have a combined record of 1-11, with the lone victory Towson’s five-overtime thriller over Coastal Carolina. Even against the softest schedule in America, IU hasn’t exactly been a brick wall on defense and hasn’t done a thing to get into the backfield. If you can’t get to the Michigan running attack before it gets going, the next thing you’ll see is a Denard Robinson vapor trail. To have any shot at stopping what the Wolverines are doing, the front seven has to be athletic, disciplined, and healthy, and that could be a problem with Tyler Replogle, the team’s best linebacker, trying to come back from a concussion. He’s expected to play, but he’ll be on a short leash.
Why Indiana Might Win: IU can’t stop Michigan. Just assume 500 yards of total Wolverine offense and at least 30 points. However, Michigan can’t stop IU’s passing game. Granted, teams have been forced to bomb away to try to keep up the pace, but it’s not like the depleted Wolverine secondary has been able to stop anyone at any time. Notre Dame chucked it around the yard for 381 yards, and UConn, UMass, and Bowling Green, three teams not exactly being confused with the New Orleans Saints, all threw for more than 200 yards. IU’s combination of Damarlo Belcher, Terrance Turner, and Tandon Doss should put up a huge number on the board in the almost-certain shootout. Also …
What To Watch Out For: … Michigan is really dinged up. Denard Robinson is fine, but Wolverine fans will hold their collective breath every time he hits the turf from here on. Tate Forcier is fine, but he also suffered a knee injury and he’s not going to be 100% if Robinson goes down. The bigger problem will be the likely loss of Michael Shaw, the team’s second-leading rusher, after spraining a knee against Bowling Green, and that means it’ll be up to Vincent Smith to try to give Robinson a bit of a breather. For IU, this is Ben Chappell’s time to shine. The senior threw for 270 yards against the Wolverines last year, but he threw a key pick and didn’t throw a touchdown pass. Red hot to start the season, he has completed over 70% of his throws for 890 yards with nine touchdown passes and no picks. While Michigan’s defense is better than Western Kentucky’s and Akron’s, it’s not playing like it and Chappell has to use his experience and his receiving corps to take advantage.
What Will Happen: Chappell will throw for 350 yards and four touchdowns, and it’s still not going to be enough. The Michigan offense will use all three quarterbacks, but this week it’ll be because the coaching staff wants to keep Robinson healthy, and not because he gets hurt. It’ll be a fight for 40 minutes, but the Wolverine running game will take control midway through the second half before IU tacks on a few late points.
CFN Prediction: Michigan 41 … Indiana 31 … 5Dimes.com Line: Michigan -10.5
Must See Rating: Katy Perry on Sesame Street – 5 … Eastbound & Down – 1 … 3.5